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Causes of uncertainty in China's net primary production over the 21st century projected by the CMIP5 Earth system models
Wang, T (Wang, Tao)1,2; Lin, X (Lin, Xin)3; Liu, YW (Liu, Yongwen)4; Dantec-Nedelec, S (Dantec-Nedelec, Sarah)3; Ottle, C (Ottle, Catherine)3; Wang, T
Source PublicationINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
2016
Volume36Issue:5Pages:2323-2334
DOI10.1002/joc.4497
AbstractNet primary production is the initial step of the carbon cycle in which atmospheric CO2 is fixed by plants. The responses of net primary production (NPP) to climate change and CO2 are key processes that have the potential to significantly affect the climate-carbon feedback and future atmospheric CO2 levels. Understanding future NPP changes is important for China that became the world's largest CO2 emitter since 2006. Here, we analysed NPP changes in China under the four emission scenarios from 11 Earth system models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5. We find a general increase of NPP over the 21st century under the four emission scenarios, with the large percentage increase in northwestern China and Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. However, there is a large model spread in the increase of NPP at both country and local scales. We present a statistical approach to assess various processes to explain this large spread, and find that the large spread at the country level is predominantly attributed to inter-model difference in parameterization of CO2 fertilization effect within each emission scenario. But the parameterization of CO2 fertilization effect not always dominates over the model spread across China. When it comes to the local scale, the model spread can be significantly contributed by inter-model difference in parameterization of NPP responses to precipitation along with precipitation projection in northwestern China. Our findings provide the reasons for divergent responses of future NPP through process decomposition and are the first to pinpoint that the model process dominating over the uncertainty exhibits regional dependence.
Subject Area自然地理学
WOS IDWOS:000373612400013
Language英语
Indexed BySCI
KeywordCo2 Fertilization Elevated Co2 Stomatal Conductance Face Experiments Increasing Co2 Carbon-cycle Climate Photosynthesis Responses Drought
Cooperation Status国际
Department环境
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Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.itpcas.ac.cn/handle/131C11/7723
Collection图书馆
Corresponding AuthorWang, T
Affiliation1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Tibetan Plateau Res, Key Lab Alpine Ecol & Biodivers, Beijing, Peoples R China
2.Univ Grenoble 1, CNRS, Lab Glaciol & Geophys Environm, UMR5183, F-38041 Grenoble, France
3.CEA CNRS UVSQ, Lab Sci Climat & Environm, Gif Sur Yvette, France
4.Peking Univ, Coll Urban & Environm Sci, Sino French Inst Earth Syst Sci, Beijing 100871, Peoples R China
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Wang, T ,Lin, X ,Liu, YW ,et al. Causes of uncertainty in China's net primary production over the 21st century projected by the CMIP5 Earth system models[J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,2016,36(5):2323-2334.
APA Wang, T ,Lin, X ,Liu, YW ,Dantec-Nedelec, S ,Ottle, C ,&Wang, T.(2016).Causes of uncertainty in China's net primary production over the 21st century projected by the CMIP5 Earth system models.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,36(5),2323-2334.
MLA Wang, T ,et al."Causes of uncertainty in China's net primary production over the 21st century projected by the CMIP5 Earth system models".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY 36.5(2016):2323-2334.
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