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学科主题: 生物科学::普通生物学
题名: Regional patterns of future runoff changes from Earth system models constrained by observation
作者: Yang, H (Yang, Hui)1; Zhou, F (Zhou, Feng)1; Piao, SL (Piao, Shilong)1, 2; Huang, MT (Huang, Mengtian)1; Chen, AP (Chen, Anping)3; Ciais, P (Ciais, Philippe)4; Li, Y (Li, Yue)1; Lian, X (Lian, Xu)1; Peng, SS (Peng, Shushi)1; Zeng, ZZ (Zeng, Zhenzhong)1
通讯作者: Piao, SL
关键词: GENERAL-CIRCULATION MODEL ; GLOBAL WATER-RESOURCES ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; PRECIPITATION ; VARIABILITY ; DISCHARGE ; TRENDS ; CMIP5 ; SIMULATIONS ; UNCERTAINTY
刊名: GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
发表日期: 2017
DOI: 10.1002/2017GL073454
卷: 44, 期:11, 页:5540-5549
收录类别: SCI
合作性质: 国际
文章类型: Article
类目[WOS]: Geosciences, Multidisciplinary ; Geology
研究领域[WOS]: Geology
英文摘要: In the recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment, multimodel ensembles (arithmetic model averaging, AMA) were constructed with equal weights given to Earth system models, without considering the performance of each model at reproducing current conditions. Here we use Bayesian model averaging (BMA) to construct a weighted model ensemble for runoff projections. Higher weights are given to models with better performance in estimating historical decadal mean runoff. Using the BMA method, we find that by the end of this century, the increase of global runoff (9.81.5%) under Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 is significantly lower than estimated from AMA (12.21.3%). BMA presents a less severe runoff increase than AMA at northern high latitudes and a more severe decrease in Amazonia. Runoff decrease in Amazonia is stronger than the intermodel difference. The intermodel difference in runoff changes is mainly caused not only by precipitation differences among models, but also by evapotranspiration differences at the high northern latitudes.
语种: 英语
WOS记录号: WOS:000404382600034
Citation statistics:
内容类型: 期刊论文
URI标识: http://ir.itpcas.ac.cn/handle/131C11/8054
Appears in Collections:图书馆_期刊论文

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作者单位: 1.Peking Univ, Coll Urban & Environm Sci, Sinofrench Inst Earth Syst Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China.
2.Chinese Acad Sci, Ctr Excellence Tibetan Earth Sci, Inst Tibetan Plateau Res, Key Lab Alpine Ecol & Biodivers, Beijing, Peoples R China.
3.Woods Hole Res Ctr, Falmouth, MA USA.
4.CNRS, LSCE, UMR CEA, Gif Sur Yvette, France.

Recommended Citation:
Yang, H ,Zhou, F ,Piao, SL ,et al. Regional patterns of future runoff changes from Earth system models constrained by observation[J]. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2017,44(11):5540-5549.
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