| Regional patterns of future runoff changes from Earth system models constrained by observation | |
| Yang, H (Yang, Hui)1; Zhou, F (Zhou, Feng)1; Piao, SL (Piao, Shilong)1,2; Huang, MT (Huang, Mengtian)1; Chen, AP (Chen, Anping)3; Ciais, P (Ciais, Philippe)4; Li, Y (Li, Yue)1; Lian, X (Lian, Xu)1; Peng, SS (Peng, Shushi)1; Zeng, ZZ (Zeng, Zhenzhong)1; Piao, SL | |
| Source Publication | GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
 |
| 2017 | |
| Volume | 44Issue:11Pages:5540-5549 |
| DOI | 10.1002/2017GL073454 |
| Abstract | In the recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment, multimodel ensembles (arithmetic model averaging, AMA) were constructed with equal weights given to Earth system models, without considering the performance of each model at reproducing current conditions. Here we use Bayesian model averaging (BMA) to construct a weighted model ensemble for runoff projections. Higher weights are given to models with better performance in estimating historical decadal mean runoff. Using the BMA method, we find that by the end of this century, the increase of global runoff (9.81.5%) under Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 is significantly lower than estimated from AMA (12.21.3%). BMA presents a less severe runoff increase than AMA at northern high latitudes and a more severe decrease in Amazonia. Runoff decrease in Amazonia is stronger than the intermodel difference. The intermodel difference in runoff changes is mainly caused not only by precipitation differences among models, but also by evapotranspiration differences at the high northern latitudes. |
| Subject Area | 普通生物学 |
| WOS ID | WOS:000404382600034 |
| Language | 英语 |
| Indexed By | SCI |
| Keyword | General-circulation Model Global Water-resources Climate-change Precipitation Variability Discharge Trends Cmip5 Simulations Uncertainty |
| WOS Research Area | Geology |
| WOS Subject | Geosciences, Multidisciplinary ; Geology |
| Cooperation Status | 国际 |
| Subtype | Article |
| Citation statistics | |
| Document Type | 期刊论文 |
| Identifier | http://ir.itpcas.ac.cn/handle/131C11/8054 |
| Collection | 图书馆 |
| Corresponding Author | Piao, SL |
| Affiliation | 1.Peking Univ, Coll Urban & Environm Sci, Sinofrench Inst Earth Syst Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China. 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Ctr Excellence Tibetan Earth Sci, Inst Tibetan Plateau Res, Key Lab Alpine Ecol & Biodivers, Beijing, Peoples R China. 3.Woods Hole Res Ctr, Falmouth, MA USA. 4.CNRS, LSCE, UMR CEA, Gif Sur Yvette, France. |
| Recommended Citation GB/T 7714 | Yang, H ,Zhou, F ,Piao, SL ,et al. Regional patterns of future runoff changes from Earth system models constrained by observation[J]. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2017,44(11):5540-5549. |
| APA | Yang, H .,Zhou, F .,Piao, SL .,Huang, MT .,Chen, AP .,...&Piao, SL.(2017).Regional patterns of future runoff changes from Earth system models constrained by observation.GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,44(11),5540-5549. |
| MLA | Yang, H ,et al."Regional patterns of future runoff changes from Earth system models constrained by observation".GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS 44.11(2017):5540-5549. |
| Files in This Item: | ||||||
| File Name/Size | DocType | Version | Access | License | ||
| V.44(11) 5540-5549 2（2067KB） | 期刊论文 | 作者接受稿 | 开放获取 | CC BY-NC-SA | View Application Full Text | |
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