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Snowmelt Runoff Modelling under Projected Climate Change Patterns in the Gilgit River Basin of Northern Pakistan
Adnan, M (Adnan, Muhammad)1; Nabi, G (Nabi, Ghulam)2; Kang, SC (Kang, Shichang)1,3; Zhang, GS (Zhang, Guoshuai)4; Adnan, RM (Adnan, Rana Muhammad)5; Anjum, MN (Anjum, Muhammad Naveed)6,7; Iqbal, M (Iqbal, Mudassar)8; Ali, AF (Ali, Ayaz Fateh)1; Kang, SC
Source PublicationPOLISH JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES
2017
Volume26Issue:2Pages:525-542
DOI10.15244/pjoes/66719
AbstractPakistan is home to three of the world's largest mountain ranges in the Upper Indus Basin (UlB), where the majority of Pakistan's water resources are located: the Himalayan, Karakorum, and Hindu-Kush. This work estimated the (snow+glacier) and rainfall runoff from one of the major tributaries, the Gilgit River, nestled within the UIM of Pakistan. The snowmelt runoff model (SRM) derived by the cryospheric data from the MODIS (moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer) was employed to predict the daily discharges of the Gilgit. The SRM was successfully calibrated, and the simulation was undertaken from 2005 to 2010, with a coefficient of model efficiency ranging from 0.84-0.94. The average contributions of (snow+glacier) and rainfall to the stream flows of the Gilgit from 2001-10 were 78.35% and 21.65%, respectively, derived from the SRM. The representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) AR5 were used to investigate the effects of the changes in temperature on climate of the Gilgit catchment. Under the RCP 4.5 scenario, the air temperature of Gilgit will increase by 3(omicron)C, whereas the increase in precipitation will be minor. Under the RCP 8.5 scenario (overshooting scenario), air temperature will increase by 10.7(omicron)C, whereas precipitation will decrease between 2010 and the end of the 21(st) century in the Gilgit catchment. The application of the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 mean temperature scenarios in the SRM suggested that with increases in mean temperature of 3.02(omicron)C and 10.7(omicron)C, respectively, the average annual runoff in the Gilgit will increase by 67.03 and 177.5%, respectively, compared with the observed runoff by the end of the 21(st) century. This increased surface runoff from snow/glacier melt can potentially be utilized by planning new storage areas at appropriate locations to harness additional water.
Subject Area自然地理学
WOS IDWOS:000399967900006
Language英语
Indexed BySCI
KeywordUPPER INDUS BASIN HIMALAYAN GLACIERS KARAKORAM-HIMALAYA 20-1ST CENTURY EASTERN PART PRECIPITATION SENSITIVITY SCENARIOS REGIMES TURKEY
WOS Research AreaEnvironmental Sciences & Ecology
WOS SubjectEnvironmental Sciences ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
Cooperation Status国际
Citation statistics
Cited Times:4[WOS]   [WOS Record]     [Related Records in WOS]
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.itpcas.ac.cn/handle/131C11/8381
Collection图书馆
Corresponding AuthorKang, SC
Affiliation1.Chinese Acad Sci, Northwest Inst Ecoenvironm & Resources, State Key Lab Cryospher Sci, Lanzhou 730000, Peoples R China.
2.Univ Engn & Technol Lahore, Ctr Excellence Water Resource Engn, Lahore 54000, Pakistan.
3.CAS Ctr Excellence Tibetan Plateau Earth Sci, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China.
4.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Tibetan Plateau Res, Key Lab Tibetan Environm Changes & Land Surface P, Beijing 100085, Peoples R China.
5.Huazhong Univ Sci & Technol, Sch Hydropower & Informat Engn, Wuhan 430074, Peoples R China.
6.Chinese Acad Sci, Northwest Inst Ecoenvironm & Resources, Key Lab Inland River Ecohydrol, Lanzhou 730000, Peoples R China.
7.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China.
8.Chinese Acad Sci, Northwest Inst Ecoenvironm & Resources, Key Lab Land Surface Proc & Climate Change, Lanzhou 730000, Peoples R China.
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Adnan, M ,Nabi, G ,Kang, SC ,et al. Snowmelt Runoff Modelling under Projected Climate Change Patterns in the Gilgit River Basin of Northern Pakistan[J]. POLISH JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES,2017,26(2):525-542.
APA Adnan, M .,Nabi, G .,Kang, SC .,Zhang, GS .,Adnan, RM .,...&Kang, SC.(2017).Snowmelt Runoff Modelling under Projected Climate Change Patterns in the Gilgit River Basin of Northern Pakistan.POLISH JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES,26(2),525-542.
MLA Adnan, M ,et al."Snowmelt Runoff Modelling under Projected Climate Change Patterns in the Gilgit River Basin of Northern Pakistan".POLISH JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES 26.2(2017):525-542.
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