| Plausible rice yield losses under future climate warming | |
| Zhao, C (Zhao, Chuang)1; Piao, SL (Piao, Shilong)1,2,3; Wang, XH (Wang, Xuhui); Huang, Y (Huang, Yao)4; Ciais, P (Ciais, Philippe)5; Elliott, J (Elliott, Joshua)6; Huang, MT (Huang, Mengtian)1; Janssens, IA (Janssens, Ivan A.)7; Li, T (Li, Tao)8; Lian, X (Lian, Xu)1; Liu, YW (Liu, Yongwen)1; Muller, C (Mueller, Christoph)9; Peng, SS (Peng, Shushi)1; Wang, T (Wang, Tao)2,3; Zeng, ZZ (Zeng, Zhenzhong)1; Penuelas, J (Penuelas, Josep)10,11; Piao, SL | |
| Source Publication | NATURE PLANTS
 |
| 2017 | |
| Volume | 3Issue:1Pages:16202 |
| DOI | 10.1038/nplants.2016.202 |
| Abstract | Rice is the staple food for more than 50% of the world's population1-3. Reliable prediction of changes in rice yield is thus central for maintaining global food security. This is an extraordinary challenge. Here, we compare the sensitivity of rice yield to temperature increase derived from field warming experiments and three modelling approaches: statistical models, local crop models and global gridded crop models. Field warming experiments produce a substantial rice yield loss under warming, with an average temperature sensitivity of -5.2 +/- 1.4% K-1. Local crop models give a similar sensitivity (-6.3 +/- 0.4% K-1), but statistical and global gridded crop models both suggest less negative impacts of warming on yields (-0.8 +/- 0.3% and -2.4 +/- 3.7% K-1, respectively). Using data from field warming experiments, we further propose a conditional probability approach to constrain the large range of global gridded crop model results for the future yield changes in response to warming by the end of the century (from -1.3% to -9.3% K-1). The constraint implies a more negative response to warming (-8.3 +/- 1.4% K-1) and reduces the spread of the model ensemble by 33%. This yield reduction exceeds that estimated by the International Food Policy Research Institute assessment (-4.2 to -6.4% K-1) (ref. 4). Our study suggests that without CO2 fertilization, effective adaptation and genetic improvement, severe rice yield losses are plausible under intensive climate warming scenarios. |
| Subject Area | 普通生物学 |
| WOS ID | WOS:000395899200004 |
| Language | 英语 |
| Indexed By | SCI |
| Keyword | INFRARED HEATER CARBON-DIOXIDE FOOD SECURITY CROP YIELDS IMPACT METAANALYSIS ADAPTATION ECOSYSTEM MODELS MAIZE |
| WOS Research Area | Plant Sciences |
| WOS Subject | Plant Sciences |
| Cooperation Status | 国际 |
| Subtype | Article |
| Citation statistics | |
| Document Type | 期刊论文 |
| Identifier | http://ir.itpcas.ac.cn/handle/131C11/8395 |
| Collection | 图书馆 |
| Corresponding Author | Piao, SL |
| Affiliation | 1.Peking Univ, Coll Urban & Environm Sci, Sino French Inst Earth Syst Sci, Beijing 100871, Peoples R China. 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Tibetan Plateau Res, Key Lab Alpine Ecol & Biodivers, Beijing 100085, Peoples R China. 3.Chinese Acad Sci, Ctr Excellence Tibetan Earth Sci, Beijing 100085, Peoples R China. 4.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Bot, State Key Lab Vegetat & Environm Change, Beijing 100093, Peoples R China. 5.UVSQ, CNRS, CEA, Lab Sci Climat & Environm, F-91191 Gif Sur Yvette, France. 6.Univ Chicago, Computat Inst, Chicago, IL 60637 USA. 7.Univ Antwerp, Dept Biol, Univ Pl 1, B-2610 Antwerp, Belgium. 8.Int Rice Res Inst, Los Banos 4031, Laguna, Philippines. 9.Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res, D-14473 Potsdam, Germany. 10.CREAF, Barcelona 08193, Catalonia, Spain. 11.UAB, CSIC, CEAB, CREAF,Global Ecol Unit, Barcelona 08193, Catalonia, Spain. |
| Recommended Citation GB/T 7714 | Zhao, C ,Piao, SL ,Wang, XH ,et al. Plausible rice yield losses under future climate warming[J]. NATURE PLANTS,2017,3(1):16202. |
| APA | Zhao, C .,Piao, SL .,Wang, XH .,Huang, Y .,Ciais, P .,...&Piao, SL.(2017).Plausible rice yield losses under future climate warming.NATURE PLANTS,3(1),16202. |
| MLA | Zhao, C ,et al."Plausible rice yield losses under future climate warming".NATURE PLANTS 3.1(2017):16202. |
| Files in This Item: | ||||||
| File Name/Size | DocType | Version | Access | License | ||
| V.3(1) 16202 2017.pd（937KB） | 期刊论文 | 作者接受稿 | 开放获取 | CC BY-NC-SA | View Application Full Text | |
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