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Spatial analysis of temperature time series over the Upper Indus Basin (UIB) Pakistan
Latif, Y (Latif, Yasir)1; Ma, YM (Ma Yaoming)1,2; Yaseen, M (Yaseen, Muhammad)3; Muhammad, S (Muhammad, Sher)4,5; Wazir, MA (Wazir, Muhammad Atif)1,6

Runoff generated from the Upper Indus Basin (UIB) mainly originates in the massifs of the Hindukush-Karakoram-Himalaya (HKH) region of Pakistan. Water supply in early spring depends upon the snow accumulation in the winter and the subsequent temperature. Seasonal temperature variations corroborate the contemporary dynamics of snow and glaciers. Recently, there has been increasing evidence of accelerated warming in high mountain areas, termed as elevation-dependent warming (EDW). We have identified trends, analyzed inconsistencies, and calculated changes in the maximum, minimum, mean and diurnal temperature range (T-max, T-min, T-mean, and DTR) at 20 weather stations during four-time series: 1961-2013 (first), 1971-2013 (second), 1981-2013 (third), and 1991-2013 (fourth). We employed the Mann-Kendall test to determine the existence of a trend and Sen's method for the estimation of prevailing trends, whereas homogeneity analysis was applied before trend identification using three different tests. This study revealed that the largest and smallest magnitudes of trends appeared in the winter and summer, respectively, particularly during the fourth data series. T-max revealed robust warming at ten stations, most remarkably at Gupis, Khunjrab, and Naltar at rates of 0.29, 0.36, and 0.43 degrees C/decade, respectively, during the fourth series. We observed that T-min exhibits a mixed pattern of warming and cooling during the second and third series, but cooling becomes stronger during the fourth series, exhibiting significant trends at twelve stations. Khunjrab and Naltar showed steady warming during the fourth series (spring), at rates of 0.26 and 0.13 degrees C/decade in terms of T-mean. The observed decreases in DTR appeared stronger in the fourth series during the summer. These findings tend to partially support the notion of EDW but validate the dominance of cooling spatially and temporally.

Subject AreaAtmospheric Sciences
WOS IDWOS:000492215400001
Indexed BySCI
KeywordClimate-change Impacts Mass-balance Mann-kendall 2 Glaciers Trends Karakoram Precipitation Rainfall Variability Calibration
WOS Research AreaMeteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS SubjectMeteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Cooperation Status国际
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Document Type期刊论文
Corresponding AuthorLatif, Y (Latif, Yasir)
Affiliation1.Chinese Acad Sci, Key Lab Tibetan Environm Changes & Land Surface P, Inst Tibetan Plateau Res, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China;
2.Chinese Acad Sci, CAS Ctr Excellence Tibetan Plateau Earth Sci, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China;
3.Univ Engn & Technol Lahore, Ctr Excellence Water Resources Engn, Lahore, Pakistan;
4.Yunnan Univ, Inst Int Rivers & Ecosecur, Kunming 650500, Yunnan, Peoples R China;
5.Int Ctr Integrated Mt Dev, GPO Box 3226, Kathmandu, Nepal;
6.PMD, Islamabad, Pakistan.
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Latif, Y ,Ma, YM ,Yaseen, M ,et al. Spatial analysis of temperature time series over the Upper Indus Basin (UIB) Pakistan[J]. THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY,2019,139(2020-01-02):741-758.
APA Latif, Y ,Ma, YM ,Yaseen, M ,Muhammad, S ,&Wazir, MA .(2019).Spatial analysis of temperature time series over the Upper Indus Basin (UIB) Pakistan.THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY,139(2020-01-02),741-758.
MLA Latif, Y ,et al."Spatial analysis of temperature time series over the Upper Indus Basin (UIB) Pakistan".THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY 139.2020-01-02(2019):741-758.
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