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学科主题: 地理学::自然地理学
题名: SRM融雪径流模型在喜玛拉雅北坡卡鲁雄曲的开发及其应用
作者: 卢巍
答辩日期: 2008
导师: 刘景时
专业: 自然地理学
授予单位: 中国科学院研究生院
授予地点: 北京
学位: 硕士
关键词: 融水径流 ;  卡鲁雄曲 ;  SRM ;  喜玛拉雅山
索取号: S000011
部门归属: 图书馆
摘要: 在全球变暖的环境背景下,冰川退缩对水资源,尤其是对以冰川融水补给为主的河流影响巨大。在我国,冰川水资源更是干旱半干旱地区人民生存和社会赖以发展的生命线。因此,探讨冰川融水径流的变化趋势、影响因素、以及对气候变化的响应等科学问题有着重要的科学及其现实意义。 使用水文模型研究水资源问题的优点在于可以利用它研究气候变化和水资源的因果关系及流域水资源对气候变化的敏感性。目前很多国家已经把水文模型模拟的方法应用到不同水文气候条件下的河流流域。本文选取我国喜玛拉雅山一侧唯一具有长期水文观测资料的卡鲁雄曲为典型区域,用SRM融雪径流模型对其径流进行模拟及其预测对气候变化的响应,所得结果将对研究喜玛拉雅山地区冰雪融水径流对气候变暖的响应有一定的指导意义。本文主要研究成果包括:(1)对卡鲁雄曲近20年的气象、径流资料分析表明,该流域的消融期为4月下旬到10月末,季风期为6-9月,日均流量在7、8月达到最大值。年径流量的变差系数Cv为0.14,年径流量年际极值比为2.1。用Mann-Kendall趋势检验方法检验气温,结果发现气温从1984年有上升趋势,对降雨序列进行检验,结果表明在1971年发生了上升的趋势,但是随后没有通过0.05的显著性检验。(2)选取卡鲁雄曲流域作为研究区,利用SRM模型模拟枯水年、丰水年和平水年的融雪经流,取定该地区的模型参数,通过拟合优度系数Nash-Sutcliffe系数(R2)和体积差(Dv[%])可以看出模拟结果较好的模拟了该流域的径流,说明SRM模型适用于冰川区域。根据已有研究设定情景进行预测,假设冰川覆盖率不变,到2020年温度和降水分别增加1.12℃和17%,径流分别增加9.4%和12.5%;到2050年,温度和降水分别增加2.14℃和32%,径流量分别增加11.6%和23.3%。
英文摘要: With Global warming, the retreat of glaciers for water resources, especially for river which is mainly supplied by snowmelt water will conduct enormous impact. The Karuxung River in the Northern Himalayas which mainly sources from glaciered region has 52 existing glaciers with a total area of 59.42 km2. Introduced some simple conceptual hydrological models, and recalled of the application of model in the Himalayan region in the past 20 years. Using Snowmelt Runoff Model (SRM), developed a distributed hydrological model, and simulated the various daily runoff. The results show that: in the case of without remote sensing data, applying the snow coverage as inputing variable which is calculated by initial air temperature, the Nash-Sutcliffe and Volumetric Diff which are used to estimate for the simulated accuracy for a low, a high and a normal water in year 1986, 1987 and 1994, are touched an expectant level. Based on the results of this simulation, the SRM is applied to perform meltwater runoff with a possible variability under increasing precipitation 17~32% and rising air temperature of 1.12~2.14℃, respectively. The simulation result suggest that :(1) the parameters which are chosen to simulate the snowmelt runoff in the Karuxung watershed are proved correct, and the depletion curves of snow coverage which is computed by air temperature also are proved suitable to reflect the true situation;(2) The forecast result showed that the total amount of snow runoff enlarged greatly under possible changes in precipitation and air temperature. The period of snowmelt will be onset an early date during spring when temperature is rising by 1.12~2.14℃and the meltwater from glacial area will be increased in August and September.
语种: 中文
内容类型: 学位论文
URI标识: http://ir.itpcas.ac.cn/handle/131C11/1204
Appears in Collections:图书馆_学位论文

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Recommended Citation:
卢巍.SRM融雪径流模型在喜玛拉雅北坡卡鲁雄曲的开发及其应用[硕士].北京.中国科学院研究生院.2008
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