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学科主题: 地理学::自然地理学
题名: Temporal variability in the thermal requirements for vegetation phenology on the Tibetan plateau and its implications for carbon dynamics
作者: Jin, ZN (Jin, Zhenong)1; Zhuang, QL (Zhuang, Qianlai)1, 2; Dukes, JS (Dukes, Jeffrey S.)3, 4; He, JS (He, Jin-Sheng)5, 6; Sokolov, AP (Sokolov, Andrei P.)7; Chen, M (Chen, Min)1; Zhang, TL (Zhang, Tonglin)8; Luo, TX (Luo, Tianxiang)9
通讯作者: Zhuang, QL
关键词: CLIMATE-CHANGE ; SPRING PHENOLOGY ; GROWING-SEASON ; GREEN-UP ; MODEL ; PRECIPITATION ; TEMPERATURES ; ADAPTATION ; GRASSLANDS ; FEEDBACKS
刊名: CLIMATIC CHANGE
发表日期: 2016
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1736-8
卷: 138, 期:3-4, 页:617-632
收录类别: SCI
合作性质: 国际
文章类型: Article
部门归属: 环境
英文摘要: Static thermal requirements (T (req) ) are widely used to model the timing of phenology, yet may significantly bias phenological projections under future warming conditions, since recent studies argue that climate warming will increase T (req) for triggering vegetation phenology. This study investigates the temporal trend and inter-annual variation of T (req) derived from satellite-based spring and autumn phenology for the alpine and temperate vegetation on the Tibetan Plateau from 1982 to 2011. While we detected persistent warming in both spring and autumn across this time period, we did not find a corresponding long-term increase in T (req) for most of the study area. Instead, we found a substantial interannual variability of T (req) that could be largely explained by interannual variations in other climatic factors. Specifically, the number of chilling days and fall temperature were robust variables for predicting the dynamics of T (req) for spring onset and autumn senescence, respectively. Phenology models incorporating a dynamic T (req) algorithm performed slightly better than those with static T (req) values in reproducing phenology derived from SPOT-VGT NDVI data. To assess the degree to which T (req) variation affects large-scale phenology and carbon cycling projections, we compared the output from versions of the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model that incorporated static and dynamic T (req) values in their phenology algorithms. Under two contrasting future climate scenarios, the dynamic T (req) setting reduced the projected growing season length by up to 1-3 weeks by the late twenty-first century, leading to a maximum reduction of 8.9 % in annual net primary production and similar to 15 % in cumulative net ecosystem production for this region. Our study reveals that temporal dynamics of T (req) meaningfully affect the carbon dynamics on the Tibetan Plateau, and should thus be considered in future ecosystem carbon modeling.
语种: 英语
WOS记录号: WOS:000383615200018
Citation statistics:
内容类型: 期刊论文
URI标识: http://ir.itpcas.ac.cn/handle/131C11/7589
Appears in Collections:图书馆_期刊论文

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作者单位: 1.Purdue Univ, Dept Earth Atmospher & Planetary Sci, CIVIL 550 Stadium Mall Dr, W Lafayette, IN 47907 USA
2.Purdue Univ, Dept Agron, W Lafayette, IN 47907 USA
3.Purdue Univ, Dept Forestry & Nat Resources, W Lafayette, IN 47907 USA
4.Purdue Univ, Dept Biol Sci, W Lafayette, IN 47907 USA
5.Chinese Acad Sci, Northwest Inst Plateau Biol, Key Lab Adaptat & Evolut Plateau Biota, Xining 810008, Peoples R China
6.Peking Univ, Dept Ecol, Coll Urban & Environm Sci, Beijing 100871, Peoples R China
7.MIT, Joint Program Sci & Policy Global Change, 77 Massachusetts Ave, Cambridge, MA 02139 USA
8.Purdue Univ, Dept Stat, W Lafayette, IN 47907 USA
9.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Tibetan Plateau Res, Key Lab Tibetan Environm Changes & Land Surface P, Beijing 100085, Peoples R China

Recommended Citation:
Jin, ZN ,Zhuang, QL ,Dukes, JS ,et al. Temporal variability in the thermal requirements for vegetation phenology on the Tibetan plateau and its implications for carbon dynamics[J]. CLIMATIC CHANGE,2016,138(3-4):617-632.
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