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学科主题: 地理学::自然地理学
题名: Effects of Urbanization and Climate Change on Peak Flows over the San Antonio River Basin, Texas
作者: Zhao, G (Zhao, Gang)1; Gao, HL (Gao, Huilin)1; Cuo, L (Cuo, Lan)2
通讯作者: Gao, HL
关键词: CONTERMINOUS UNITED-STATES ; SOIL-VEGETATION MODEL ; LAND-COVER DATABASE ; UNCERTAINTY SOURCES ; IMPACT ASSESSMENT ; FLOOD FREQUENCY ; LARGE ENSEMBLE ; PRECIPITATION ; RUNOFF ; HYDROLOGY
刊名: JOURNAL OF HYDROMETEOROLOGY
发表日期: 2016
DOI: 10.1175/JHM-D-15-0216.1
卷: 17, 期:9, 页:2371-2389
收录类别: SCI
合作性质: 国际
文章类型: Article
部门归属: 环境
英文摘要: A thorough understanding of the peak flows under urbanization and climate change-with the associated uncertainties-is indispensable for mitigating the negative social, economic, and environmental impacts from flooding. In this paper, a case study was conducted by applying the Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model (DHSVM) to the San Antonio River basin (SARB), Texas. Historical and future land-cover maps were assembled to represent the urbanization process. Future climate and its uncertainties were represented by a series of designed scenarios using the Change Factor (CF) method. The factors were calculated by comparing the model ensemble from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) with baseline historical climatology during two future periods (2020-49, period 1; 2070-99, period 2). It was found that with urban impervious areas increasing alone, annual peak flows may increase from 601 (period 1) to 885 m(3) s(-1) (period 2). With regard to climate change, annual peak flows driven by forcings from maximum, median, and minimum CFs under four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) were analyzed. While the median values of future annual peak flows-forced by the median CF values-are very similar to the baseline under all RCPs, in each case the uncertainty range (calculated as the difference between annual peak flows driven by the maximum and minimum CFs) is very large. When urbanization and climate change coevolve, these averaged annual peak flows from the four RCPs will increase from 447 (period 1) to 707 m(3) s(-1) (period 2), with the uncertainties associated with climate change more than 3 times greater than those from urbanization.
语种: 英语
WOS记录号: WOS:000385419800002
Citation statistics:
内容类型: 期刊论文
URI标识: http://ir.itpcas.ac.cn/handle/131C11/7608
Appears in Collections:图书馆_期刊论文

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作者单位: 1.Texas A&M Univ, Zachry Dept Civil Engn, TAMU 3136, College Stn, TX 77843 USA
2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Tibetan Plateau Res, Ctr Excellence Tibetan Plateau Earth Sci, Key Lab Tibetan Environm Changes & Land Surface P, Beijing, Peoples R China

Recommended Citation:
Zhao, G ,Gao, HL ,Cuo, L . Effects of Urbanization and Climate Change on Peak Flows over the San Antonio River Basin, Texas[J]. JOURNAL OF HYDROMETEOROLOGY,2016,17(9):2371-2389.
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