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学科主题: 地理学::自然地理学
题名: Causes of uncertainty in China's net primary production over the 21st century projected by the CMIP5 Earth system models
作者: Wang, T (Wang, Tao)1, 2; Lin, X (Lin, Xin)3; Liu, YW (Liu, Yongwen)4; Dantec-Nedelec, S (Dantec-Nedelec, Sarah)3; Ottle, C (Ottle, Catherine)3
通讯作者: Wang, T
刊名: INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
发表日期: 2016
DOI: 10.1002/joc.4497
卷: 36, 期:5, 页:2323-2334
收录类别: SCI
合作性质: 国际
文章类型: Article
英文摘要: Net primary production is the initial step of the carbon cycle in which atmospheric CO2 is fixed by plants. The responses of net primary production (NPP) to climate change and CO2 are key processes that have the potential to significantly affect the climate-carbon feedback and future atmospheric CO2 levels. Understanding future NPP changes is important for China that became the world's largest CO2 emitter since 2006. Here, we analysed NPP changes in China under the four emission scenarios from 11 Earth system models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5. We find a general increase of NPP over the 21st century under the four emission scenarios, with the large percentage increase in northwestern China and Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. However, there is a large model spread in the increase of NPP at both country and local scales. We present a statistical approach to assess various processes to explain this large spread, and find that the large spread at the country level is predominantly attributed to inter-model difference in parameterization of CO2 fertilization effect within each emission scenario. But the parameterization of CO2 fertilization effect not always dominates over the model spread across China. When it comes to the local scale, the model spread can be significantly contributed by inter-model difference in parameterization of NPP responses to precipitation along with precipitation projection in northwestern China. Our findings provide the reasons for divergent responses of future NPP through process decomposition and are the first to pinpoint that the model process dominating over the uncertainty exhibits regional dependence.
语种: 英语
WOS记录号: WOS:000373612400013
Citation statistics:
内容类型: 期刊论文
URI标识: http://ir.itpcas.ac.cn/handle/131C11/7723
Appears in Collections:图书馆_期刊论文

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作者单位: 1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Tibetan Plateau Res, Key Lab Alpine Ecol & Biodivers, Beijing, Peoples R China
2.Univ Grenoble 1, CNRS, Lab Glaciol & Geophys Environm, UMR5183, F-38041 Grenoble, France
3.CEA CNRS UVSQ, Lab Sci Climat & Environm, Gif Sur Yvette, France
4.Peking Univ, Coll Urban & Environm Sci, Sino French Inst Earth Syst Sci, Beijing 100871, Peoples R China

Recommended Citation:
Wang, T ,Lin, X ,Liu, YW ,et al. Causes of uncertainty in China's net primary production over the 21st century projected by the CMIP5 Earth system models[J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,2016,36(5):2323-2334.
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