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Keeping global warming within 1.5 degrees C constrains emergence of aridification
Park, CE (Park, Chang-Eui)1; Jeong, SJ (Jeong, Su-Jong)1; Joshi, M (Joshi, Manoj)2; Osborn, TJ (Osborn, Timothy J.)2; Ho, CH (Ho, Chang-Hoi)3; Piao, SL (Piao, Shilong)4,5,6; Chen, DL (Chen, Deliang)7; Liu, JG (Liu, Junguo)1; Yang, H (Yang, Hong)8,9; Park, H (Park, Hoonyoung)3; Kim, BM (Kim, Baek-Min)10; Feng, S (Feng, Song)11
Source PublicationNATURE CLIMATE CHANGE
2018
Volume8Issue:1Pages:70-74
DOI10.1038/s41558-017-0034-4
Abstract

Aridity-the ratio of atmospheric water supply (precipitation; P) to demand (potential evapotranspiration; PET)-is projected to decrease (that is, areas will become drier) as a consequence of anthropogenic climate change, exacerbating land degradation and desertification(1-6). However, the timing of significant aridification relative to natural variability-defined here as the time of emergence for aridification (ToEA)-is unknown, despite its importance in designing and implementing mitigation policies(7-10). Here we estimate ToEA from projections of 27 global climate models (GCMs) under representative concentration pathways (RCPs) RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, and in doing so, identify where emergence occurs before global mean warming reaches 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C above the pre-industrial level. On the basis of the ensemble median ToEA for each grid cell, aridification emerges over 32% (RCP4.5) and 24% (RCP8.5) of the total land surface before the ensemble median of global mean temperature change reaches 2 degrees C in each scenario. Moreover, ToEA is avoided in about two-thirds of the above regions if the maximum global warming level is limited to 1.5 degrees C. Early action for accomplishing the 1.5 degrees C temperature goal can therefore markedly reduce the likelihood that large regions will face substantial aridification and related impacts.

Subject Area生态学
WOS IDWOS:000423840000023
Language英语
Indexed BySCIE
KeywordEarth System Model Climate-change Water Expansion Drylands Drought Future Forest
WOS Research AreaEnvironmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS SubjectEnvironmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Cooperation Status国际
ISSN1758-678X
Department高寒生态重点实验室
PublisherNATURE PUBLISHING GROUP
Citation statistics
Cited Times:22[WOS]   [WOS Record]     [Related Records in WOS]
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.itpcas.ac.cn/handle/131C11/8782
Collection图书馆
Corresponding AuthorJeong, SJ (Jeong, Su-Jong)
Affiliation1.Southern Univ Sci & Technol SUSTECH, Sch Environm Sci & Engn, Shenzhen, Peoples R China;
2.[Joshi, Manoj; Osborn, Timothy J.] Univ East Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, Climat Res Unit, Norwich, Norfolk, England;
3.Seoul Natl Univ, Sch Earth & Environm Sci, Seoul, South Korea;
4.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Tibetan Plateau Res, Key Lab Alpine Ecol & Biodivers, Beijing, Peoples R China;
5.Peking Univ, Coll Urban & Environm Sci, Sinofrench Inst Earth Syst Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China;
6.Chinese Acad Sci, Ctr Excellence Tibetan Earth Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China;
7.Univ Gothenburg, Dept Earth Sci, Gothenburg, Sweden;
8.Swiss Fed Inst Aquat Sci & Technol, EAWAG, Dubendorf, Switzerland;
9.Univ Basel, Fac Sci, Basel, Switzerland;
10.Korea Polar Res Inst, Incheon, South Korea;
11.Univ Arkansas, Dept Geosci, Fayetteville, AR 72701 USA.
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Park, CE ,Jeong, SJ ,Joshi, M ,et al. Keeping global warming within 1.5 degrees C constrains emergence of aridification[J]. NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE,2018,8(1):70-74.
APA Park, CE .,Jeong, SJ .,Joshi, M .,Osborn, TJ .,Ho, CH .,...&Feng, S .(2018).Keeping global warming within 1.5 degrees C constrains emergence of aridification.NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE,8(1),70-74.
MLA Park, CE ,et al."Keeping global warming within 1.5 degrees C constrains emergence of aridification".NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE 8.1(2018):70-74.
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