| Temperature increase reduces global yields of major crops in four independent estimates | |
| Zhao, C (Zhao, Chuang)1; Liu, B (Liu, Bing)2,3,4,5,6; Piao, SL (Piao, Shilong)1,7,8; Wang, XH (Wang, Xuhui)1; Lobell, DB (Lobell, David B.)9; Huang, Y (Huang, Yao)10; Huang, MT (Huang, Mengtian)1; Yao, YT (Yao, Yitong)1; Bassu, S (Bassu, Simona)11; Ciais, P (Ciais, Philippe)12; Durand, JL (Durand, Jean-Louis)13; Elliott, J (Elliott, Joshua)14,15; Ewert, F (Ewert, Frank)16,17; Janssens, IA (Janssens, Ivan A.)18; Li, T (Li, Tao)19; Lin, E (Lin, Erda)20; Liu, Q (Liu, Qiang)1; Martre, P (Martre, Pierre); Muller, C (Mueller, Christoph); Peng, SS (Peng, Shushi)1; Piao, SL; Asseng, S | |
| Source Publication | PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
 |
| 2017 | |
| Volume | 114Issue:35Pages:9326-9331 |
| DOI | 10.1073/pnas.1701762114 |
| Abstract | Wheat, rice, maize, and soybean provide two-thirds of human caloric intake. Assessing the impact of global temperature increase on production of these crops is therefore critical to maintaining global food supply, but different studies have yielded different results. Here, we investigated the impacts of temperature on yields of the four crops by compiling extensive published results from four analytical methods: global grid-based and local point-based models, statistical regressions, and field-warming experiments. Results from the different methods consistently showed negative temperature impacts on crop yield at the global scale, generally underpinned by similar impacts at country and site scales. Without CO2 fertilization, effective adaptation, and genetic improvement, each degree-Celsius increase in global mean temperature would, on average, reduce global yields of wheat by 6.0%, rice by 3.2%, maize by 7.4%, and soybean by 3.1%. Results are highly heterogeneous across crops and geographical areas, with some positive impact estimates. Multi-method analyses improved the confidence in assessments of future climate impacts on global major crops and suggest crop-and region-specific adaptation strategies to ensure food security for an increasing world population. |
| Subject Area | 普通生物学 |
| WOS ID | WOS:000408536000041 |
| Language | 英语 |
| Indexed By | SCI |
| Keyword | Climate-change Wheat Yields Impacts Growth Range China Food |
| WOS Research Area | Science & Technology - Other Topics |
| WOS Subject | Multidisciplinary Sciences |
| Cooperation Status | 国际 |
| Subtype | Article |
| Citation statistics | |
| Document Type | 期刊论文 |
| Identifier | http://ir.itpcas.ac.cn/handle/131C11/8001 |
| Collection | 图书馆 |
| Corresponding Author | Piao, SL; Asseng, S |
| Affiliation | 1.Peking Univ, Sino French Inst Earth Syst Sci, Coll Urban & Environm Sci, Beijing 100871, Peoples R China. 2.Nanjing Agr Univ, Natl Engn & Technol Ctr Informat Agr, Nanjing 210095, Jiangsu, Peoples R China. 3.Nanjing Agr Univ, Key Lab Crop Syst Anal & Decis Making, Minist Agr, Nanjing 210095, Jiangsu, Peoples R China. 4.Nanjing Agr Univ, Jiangsu Key Lab Informat Agr, Nanjing 210095, Jiangsu, Peoples R China. 5.Nanjing Agr Univ, Jiangsu Collaborat Innovat Ctr Modern Crop Prod, Nanjing 210095, Jiangsu, Peoples R China. 6.Univ Florida, Agr & Biol Engn Dept, Gainesville, FL 32611 USA. 7.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Tibetan Plateau Res, Key Lab Alpine Ecol & Biodivers, Beijing 100085, Peoples R China. 8.Chinese Acad Sci, Ctr Excellence Tibetan Earth Sci, Beijing 100085, Peoples R China. 9.Stanford Univ, Dept Earth Syst Sci, Ctr Food Secur & Environm, Stanford, CA 94305 USA. 10.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Bot, State Key Lab Vegetat & Environm Change, Beijing 100093, Peoples R China. 11.Univ Sassari, Desertificat Res Ctr, I-07100 Sassari, Italy. 12.Univ Versailles St Quentin, Lab Sci Climat & Environm, Commissariat Energie Atom & Energies Alternat, CNRS, F-91191 Gif Sur Yvette, France. 13.INRA, Unite Rech Pluridisciplinaire Prairies & Plantes, CS 80006, F-86600 Lusignan, France. 14.Univ Chicago, Computat Inst, Chicago, IL 60637 USA. 15.Columbia Univ, Ctr Climate Syst Res, New York, NY 10025 USA. 16.Univ Bonn, Inst Crop Sci & Resource Conservat, D-53115 Bonn, Germany. 17.Leibniz Ctr Agr Landscape Res, D-15374 Muncheberg, Germany. 18.Univ Antwerp, Dept Biol, B-2610 Antwerp, Belgium. 19.Int Rice Res Inst, Los Banos 4031, Laguna, Philippines. 20.Chinese Acad Agr Sci, Agroenvironm & Sustainable Dev Inst, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China. |
| Recommended Citation GB/T 7714 | Zhao, C ,Liu, B ,Piao, SL ,et al. Temperature increase reduces global yields of major crops in four independent estimates[J]. PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA,2017,114(35):9326-9331. |
| APA | Zhao, C .,Liu, B .,Piao, SL .,Wang, XH .,Lobell, DB .,...&Asseng, S.(2017).Temperature increase reduces global yields of major crops in four independent estimates.PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA,114(35),9326-9331. |
| MLA | Zhao, C ,et al."Temperature increase reduces global yields of major crops in four independent estimates".PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA 114.35(2017):9326-9331. |
| Files in This Item: | ||||||
| File Name/Size | DocType | Version | Access | License | ||
| V.114(35) 9326-9331 （1187KB） | 期刊论文 | 作者接受稿 | 开放获取 | CC BY-NC-SA | View Application Full Text | |
Items in the repository are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.
Edit Comment